Monday, April 21, 2014

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Q1 Earnings Preview: April Fools’ Gold

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) will webcast its quarterly earnings conference call on Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 5:30 p.m. EDT / 2:30 p.m. PDT to discuss the results of its fiscal first quarter ending March 29, 2014.

Wall Street anticipates that the chip-maker will breakeven for the quarter, which is $0.13 better than last year's loss of $0.13 per share. iStock expects AMD  to beat Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $0.01, a penny, but infinitely more than expected.

Sales, like earnings, are expected to grow, rising a muscular 23.20% year-over-year (YoY). Advanced Micro's consensus revenue estimate for Q1 is $1.34 billion, more than last year's $1.09 billion.

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Advanced Micro Devices is a global semiconductor company with facilities around the world. The Company offers x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated as an accelerated processing unit (APU), for the commercial and consumer markets, embedded microprocessors for commercial, commercial client and consumer markets and chipsets for desktop and mobile devices, including mobile personal computers, or PCs, and tablets, professional workstations and servers and graphics, video and multimedia products for desktop and mobile devices, including mobile PCs and tablets, home media PCs and professional workstations, servers and technology for game consoles.

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An earnings beat from AMD? Big whoop! Management has done an excellent job managing expectations. Profits topped the consensus outlook 14 of the last 16 quarters by an average of 9.26% with a range of 2.33% to 31.25% more than expected. Meanwhile, the three meet the street's mark for the three reaming quarterly checkups.

Despite the strong track record of bullish beats, the semiconductor's share price went up nine and down seven times in the days surrounding the last 16 profit reviews. When green, the stock averaged a gain of 3%, maxing out at 7.10%. And when red, the price backed up from -1.50% to -6.60% with a typical loss of -3.74.

From a seasonal standpoint, the April announcement has been strong on surprises, but blah on performance. AMD bypassed Wall Street's view by 11.43%, 3.03%, 10.71% and 31.25% for the past four April announcements, from the most recent back. However, the stock priced limped in the three-days book ending those solid quarters, losing -4.9% last April while gaining 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.4% for the three prior diamond month announcements, once again in order from most recent.

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Overall: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) is set up for a good quarter. Earnings and sales are expected to rise sharply YoY, and management was able to get costs under control in 2013. Costs of goods fell 20.68% versus a -2.27% decline for sales, which is beneficial for profit margins.

While the income statement looks healthy, iStock will be keeping an eye on inventory as the balance sheet line item spiked 57.3% in 2013. Too much old technology collecting dust on shelves eventually turns into super low profit margins. Hopefully, there is a dramatic inventory reduction Thursday afternoon; otherwise, a charge could be forthcoming in future quarters. 

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